Political expert to Beau Biden: Stay put for now

By NICOLE GAUDIANO
News Journal Washington Bureau

WASHINGTON — One of the nation’s top political analysts says Beau Biden should take a pass on the 2010 special election to fill the remaining four years of his father's Senate term.

Instead, he should wait until he's a shoo-in for a Senate seat representing Delaware, said Charlie Cook, editor and publisher of The Cook Political Report.

Beau Biden, 40, Delaware's attorney general, has said he is considering a run for the seat his father Joe Biden, gave up to become vice president. His opponent next year would be GOP Rep. Mike Castle, 70, who is serving his ninth term in the House.

Cook said there's a 95 percent chance Castle wouldn't run for re-election to the Senate seat in 2014, if he wins it next year. In addition, he said, Democratic Sen. Tom Carper, D-Del., may retire in 2012 (Carper has said he will run for re-election). 

“Beau Biden can walk into a Senate seat, absolutely without a scratch, within the next two or four years,” Cook said at a briefing today. “Why does he want to run the risk of running against somebody who’s got experience all over him in a Republican year? Why does he want to do this?”
The Cook Political Report says next year's election is one of six Senate "toss-up" races that either party has a good chance of winning.

Cook said he’s never met Beau Biden and isn't predicting he won't run. 

“If he’s anything like his father, he will definitely run,” he said. “But if I were him I would not run.” 

If Biden does run, his race against Castle will be “an epic battle,” said Jennifer Duffy said. 

Castle, a well-known moderate, has “no learning curve” and will run a good campaign, she said. And Biden would have “every resource he could ever hope for and more,” Duffy said

“It’s tied,” she said of the hypothetical race. “It’s going to stay tied.”