For months, Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden has been courted by national Democrats, including his father, Vice President Joe Biden, to run for his dad's former U.S. Senate seat.

The drumbeat, fueled by Beau Biden himself, grew so strong that political insiders and pundits in Delaware and beyond said it was a near-certainty he would enter the race against Republican Mike Castle, Delaware's nine-term U.S. representative, in what was shaping up as one of the hottest races in America.

The contest is not to be. On Monday, the younger Biden dashed those hopes, saying he would instead seek a second four-year term as attorney general.

The move leaves Democrats scrambling to find a candidate to run against Castle in November for the Senate seat Joe Biden held for 36 years.

With a thinning field and little time left to launch a serious campaign, New Castle County Executive Chris Coons, now in his second term, emerged as the front-runner to challenge Castle for the seat.

"I am seriously considering running for the open U.S. Senate seat in Delaware," Coons said. "I see this as an important opportunity to draw a contrast and give Delaware a chance for a strong candidate from my party. I think Delaware needs a senator who is going to fight hard for working people, is going to be able to help business create jobs and keep our communities safe -- the things I've done every day as county executive."

Coons spent the day fielding calls from national media and friends and politicians inside and outside Delaware. Coons and Lt. Gov. Matt Denn, also considered a potential candidate, "have traded messages," Coons said. Former Lt. Gov. John Carney, who is running for Castle's vacated House seat, also spoke with Coons Monday evening.

"I need some time to meet with my family and those who are close to me to make a final decision, and I will do so within a matter of days, no more than a week," Coons said. "It has been a remarkable day. I've gotten a whole range of calls."

Biden said the main reason for his decision was that a Senate campaign would take his focus away from "a case of great consequence" -- the prosecution of Dr. Earl B. Bradley, the pediatrician from Lewes accused of being a pedophile. Bradley, 56, was charged in December with raping nine girl patients from 3 months to 13 years old. Prosecutors have said the number of victims dating back to 1998 could surpass 100.

"It became very crystal clear that it was simply impossible to continue to focus my attention, which is like a laser on the case in Lewes, and at the same time mount a Senate campaign," the 40-year-old Biden said.

"My responsibility is to make sure that I do everything to prosecute the case to the fullest extent of the law and do everything I can for the victims."

Castle, 70, who announced his candidacy in October and has consistently led in polls of the hypothetical matchup, said he respects Biden's decision, calling it "not only a political one but a very personal one." Castle noted that Biden is married with two young children, and returned to Delaware in October after a year in Iraq with his National Guard unit.

Still, Castle said, he was "somewhat" surprised and hinted at disappointment that the much-ballyhooed race would not take place. "I thought all along Beau would be my opponent," he said.

Castle also raised the possibility that should he win, he might not seek re-election in 2014. Retirement is "certainly a possibility," Castle said.

A difficult decision

Biden, who would not discuss his future beyond November's election, rejected the suggestion that other factors -- the recent loss by a Democrat in the race for Sen. Ted Kennedy's longtime seat; the polls showing Castle ahead; and a spate of collapsed murder cases handled by his office -- played a role in his decision.

"No," he said, without elaboration.

Biden would not say exactly when he and his wife, Hallie, made the decision, saying only that it was "over the last several weeks." He would not discuss his father's role.

"I was humbled by the encouragement I got from a lot of different corners, but the reality is that this is a decision that Hallie and I made," Biden said. "The whole family is supportive of the decision."

Although Vice President Biden had wanted his son to run, he applauded Beau's decision in a written statement. "I know I sound like the proud father I am, but all of his life, Beau has put duty above any personal ambition, and this decision today is another example of that exceptional character trait."

Deirdre Murphy, spokeswoman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, had said last week her group "fully expects and hopes Beau Biden will run." But Monday, she would not comment on Biden's decision, saying in a written statement that "there will be a strong Democratic candidate for Senate in Delaware."

National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Colin Reed said in a statement that Biden's decision "represents a major recruiting setback for national Democrats, who have been counting on his candidacy to keep the vice president's former seat in Democratic control. As we saw in Massachusetts last week, voters clearly stated that these seats belong to the people -- not to either political party or dynasty."

Castle said Delawareans need a "strong and independent voice" in the Senate, adding that his commitment "has never been stronger."

A formidable foe

Without a Biden seeking the office for the first time in nearly four decades, Democrats must find a candidate against Castle, a former two-term governor and one of the most popular politicians in Delaware history. Castle has $1.7 million in his campaign fund.

Two nonpartisan political newsletters in Washington said Monday that the GOP's prospects of capturing a seat that has eluded them for 37 years are looking rosier.

After Biden's announcement, the Cook Political Report recast the Senate race from "toss-up" to "solid Republican."

Stu Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, called Monday's development "a severe blow to Democrats' chances of holding this Senate seat in November. All of the dominos are falling in the GOP's direction this election cycle, and Delaware is merely the latest one to go."

The president's party typically loses congressional seats in the mid-term elections, a process that began last week when Republican Scott Brown won Ted Kennedy's old seat in Massachusetts, costing Democrats their filibuster-proof 60-40 majority. Besides Delaware, the GOP has targeted Senate seats in North Dakota, Nevada, Colorado and Connecticut, among others.

"I would say the Democrats are deeply disappointed and find themselves in the worst of places right now," said Jennifer Duffy, a Cook political analyst. "Not only do they have a problem in Delaware, because they need a candidate, but this feeds into the larger narrative of how much trouble they're going to be in in November."

Search for a candidate

The seat is open only because Joe Biden became vice president. In 2008, he ran for both vice president and his Senate seat, which he won handily.

That left Gov. Ruth Ann Minner to name his replacement, and she chose Ted Kaufman, Joe Biden's longtime aide and adviser. Senate terms are six years, but when an interim senator is named, by law, the seat must go up for election again during the next congressional election -- in this case, 2010 -- so the election in November will be for the remaining four years of the term.

Though Joe Biden said last week he hoped Kaufman would run if Beau did not, Kaufman reiterated Monday what he said when he was appointed -- he's only an interim senator.

"Serving the people of Delaware in the U.S. Senate is as fulfilling, challenging, and humbling as I imagined when I was appointed," Kaufman said in a written statement. "But as I said at the time, I will not seek election to a full term."

Beau Biden said Delaware has a "deep bench" of Democrats from which to field a candidate, though in interviews with political insiders Monday, the only name that emerged was Coons'.

A Coons candidacy would not jeopardize his position as county executive. He is in his second term, which doesn't end until January 2013. By law, he cannot seek a third term.

Rhett Ruggerio, former Democratic national committeeman for Delaware, said Coons, former legal counsel at W.L. Gore & Associates, "can raise money, is a great debater and will campaign his butt off."

Coons "knows the issues," Ruggerio said. "If you ask him about health care, he's going to give you the sort of response that will knock your socks off. You can't hit him with an issue on the forefront of Congress that he's not well-versed on."

John Daniello, chairman of the Democratic Party, called Coons "a fine possibility."

Though Castle has not lost once in 11 previous statewide elections, Delaware has become increasingly Democratic in recent years. As of Jan. 1, registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans 287,821 to 180,479, with 143,167 voters registered in another party or unaffiliated.

Democratic spokeswoman Murphy called Castle a vulnerable "long-term, establishment Republican who supports the very policies that led our country into fiscal crisis.

"From voting against financial protections for consumers to voting against a critical jobs bill, Mike Castle walks in lock step with Republicans. Come November, the people of Delaware aren't going to put someone in the Senate who will do nothing but carry water for the Republicans."

'A job to finish'

When Beau Biden returned from Iraq, he said on ABC's "Good Morning America" he was "absolutely, absolutely" considering a Senate run.

Even as the weeks and months passed without any decision, observers said Biden still had time and enough of a national profile with his father as vice president to raise the millions of dollars needed to challenge Castle.

But at 9:29 a.m. Monday, Biden campaign spokesman Joe Rogalsky e-mailed The News Journal with the subject line: "Message from Beau Biden: My Duty."

The e-mail was a letter to supporters, in which he acknowledged he gave "serious consideration" to a Senate campaign.

Biden's letter cited the nation's "extraordinarily difficult" challenges -- the economy, health care, energy and other issues -- as ones that will determine our children's future.

Biden's letter added: "As someone who has had the privilege of serving with the bravest men and women on this planet, I care deeply about how we treat our returning veterans and how we resolve our involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan."

The bottom line, though, Biden wrote, is that "my first responsibilities are here in Delaware. ... I have a job to finish. And that's what I must do."

Said Daniello: "I truly believe the [Bradley rape case] played a big role in it. Beau's not the type of person to give on something he's working on."

Delaware's other senator, Democrat Tom Carper, said Biden made a sensible choice.

"He's got plenty to do right where he is," Carper said. "I just don't think he felt good about just walking away from those responsibilities as AG and not seeing his wife and children for the next six months."

Election 2010: Delaware Senate: Delaware Senate: Castle 56%, Coons 27%

Rasmussen Reports

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

A first look at Delaware’s U.S. Senate race following Beau Biden’s decision not to run shows why Democrats were hoping Biden would enter the race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Delaware voters shows longtime GOP congressman Mike Castle leading New Castle County Executive Chris Coons 56% to 27%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and 13% are undecided.

The survey was taken Monday night following the announcement by Biden, the state’s Democratic attorney general, that he will not run for the Senate. In October, Castle led Biden 47% to 42% in a hypothetical match-up for the seat Biden’s father, now the vice president, held for 36 years.

The younger Biden’s decision, coming just after the upset GOP Senate win in Massachusetts, still took Democrats by surprise, particularly in a state that has trended blue in recent years. Coons’ name is the only one that has surfaced so far as a possible replacement, although he has yet to formally announce his candidacy. Ted Kaufman, appointed by the governor to the elder Biden’s seat following the November 2008 election, reiterated yesterday that he has no intention of seeking a full Senate term.

Castle, who is an announced candidate, holds virtually identical two-to-one leads over Coons among both male and female voters.

While 86% of Republicans support Castle, just 49%of Delaware Democrats back Coons. Thirty-one percent (31%) of Democrats favor the moderate GOP candidate. Sixty-one percent (61%) of the state’s unaffiliated voters choose Castle at this point.

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Delaware voters have a very favorable opinion of Castle, while just seven percent (7%) view him very unfavorably. Only nine percent (9%) have no opinion of the Republican hopeful who has served as governor and lieutenant governor and been the state’s only congressman since 1993.

Coons is viewed very favorably by 10% and very unfavorably by nine percent (9%). But 23% don’t know enough about Coons to venture even a soft favorable or unfavorable opinion of him.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Just five percent (5%) of voters in the state rate the economy as good or excellent. Fifty percent (50%) say it’s poor. Thirty-one percent (31%) believe the economy is getting better, but 39% say it’s getting worse.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Delaware voters say cutting taxes is a better way to create jobs than increasing government spending. Just 14% say increasing spending is better.

Only 33% think it’s likely that Congress will able to agree this year on a smaller, bipartisan health care plan, with 10% who say it’s very likely. Sixty percent (60%) say chances of such a plan are not very or not at all likely. This is roughly comparable to views among all voters nationwide.

Following the Christmas Day terrorist attempt to blow up a U.S. airliner, 68% in Delaware say another terrorist attack in the United States in the next year is at least somewhat likely. Delaware voters are narrowly divided over whether America is safer today than it was before September 11, 2001: 42% say yes, 39% say no.

Thirty-seven percent (37%) say the government’s response to the Christmas Day incident has been good or excellent, but 34% say it’s been poor.

Seventy-two percent (72%) favor the use of full-body scanners at airports.

Barack Obama carried 62% of the vote in Delaware in the November 2008 election, but just 50% of the state’s voters now approve of the president’s job performance, down four points from October. Forty-nine percent (49%) disapprove. Approval of the president’s performance has also declined nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) approve of the job Democratic Governor Jack Markell is doing, with 15% who strongly approve. Thirty-six percent (36%) disapprove, including 12% who strongly disapprove. These numbers are basically unchanged from October.

Democratic Senate incumbents who currently trail their challengers include Harry Reid in Nevada, Michael Bennet in Colorado, Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas and Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania. Barbara Boxer from California finds herself in a more competitive race than usual.

Republicans lead open-seat Senate races in Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Dakota and Ohio. Democrats lead in Connecticut, and the race is close in Illinois. A commentary by political analyst Larry Sabato, suggests that if the election were held today, “the (59-seat) Democratic majority in the Senate would be reduced to just 52 seats.”

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

For months, Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden has been courted by national Democrats, including his father, Vice President Joe Biden, to run for his dad's former U.S. Senate seat.

The drumbeat, fueled by Beau Biden himself, grew so strong that political insiders and pundits in Delaware and beyond said it was a near-certainty he would enter the race against Republican Mike Castle, Delaware's nine-term U.S. representative, in what was shaping up as one of the hottest races in America.

The contest is not to be. On Monday, the younger Biden dashed those hopes, saying he would instead seek a second four-year term as attorney general.

The move leaves Democrats scrambling to find a candidate to run against Castle in November for the Senate seat Joe Biden held for 36 years.

With a thinning field and little time left to launch a serious campaign, New Castle County Executive Chris Coons, now in his second term, emerged as the front-runner to challenge Castle for the seat.

"I am seriously considering running for the open U.S. Senate seat in Delaware," Coons said. "I see this as an important opportunity to draw a contrast and give Delaware a chance for a strong candidate from my party. I think Delaware needs a senator who is going to fight hard for working people, is going to be able to help business create jobs and keep our communities safe -- the things I've done every day as county executive."

Coons spent the day fielding calls from national media and friends and politicians inside and outside Delaware. Coons and Lt. Gov. Matt Denn, also considered a potential candidate, "have traded messages," Coons said. Former Lt. Gov. John Carney, who is running for Castle's vacated House seat, also spoke with Coons Monday evening.

"I need some time to meet with my family and those who are close to me to make a final decision, and I will do so within a matter of days, no more than a week," Coons said. "It has been a remarkable day. I've gotten a whole range of calls."

Biden said the main reason for his decision was that a Senate campaign would take his focus away from "a case of great consequence" -- the prosecution of Dr. Earl B. Bradley, the pediatrician from Lewes accused of being a pedophile. Bradley, 56, was charged in December with raping nine girl patients from 3 months to 13 years old. Prosecutors have said the number of victims dating back to 1998 could surpass 100.

"It became very crystal clear that it was simply impossible to continue to focus my attention, which is like a laser on the case in Lewes, and at the same time mount a Senate campaign," the 40-year-old Biden said.

"My responsibility is to make sure that I do everything to prosecute the case to the fullest extent of the law and do everything I can for the victims."

Castle, 70, who announced his candidacy in October and has consistently led in polls of the hypothetical matchup, said he respects Biden's decision, calling it "not only a political one but a very personal one." Castle noted that Biden is married with two young children, and returned to Delaware in October after a year in Iraq with his National Guard unit.

Still, Castle said, he was "somewhat" surprised and hinted at disappointment that the much-ballyhooed race would not take place. "I thought all along Beau would be my opponent," he said.

Castle also raised the possibility that should he win, he might not seek re-election in 2014. Retirement is "certainly a possibility," Castle said.

A difficult decision

Biden, who would not discuss his future beyond November's election, rejected the suggestion that other factors -- the recent loss by a Democrat in the race for Sen. Ted Kennedy's longtime seat; the polls showing Castle ahead; and a spate of collapsed murder cases handled by his office -- played a role in his decision.

"No," he said, without elaboration.

Biden would not say exactly when he and his wife, Hallie, made the decision, saying only that it was "over the last several weeks." He would not discuss his father's role.

"I was humbled by the encouragement I got from a lot of different corners, but the reality is that this is a decision that Hallie and I made," Biden said. "The whole family is supportive of the decision."

Although Vice President Biden had wanted his son to run, he applauded Beau's decision in a written statement. "I know I sound like the proud father I am, but all of his life, Beau has put duty above any personal ambition, and this decision today is another example of that exceptional character trait."

Deirdre Murphy, spokeswoman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, had said last week her group "fully expects and hopes Beau Biden will run." But Monday, she would not comment on Biden's decision, saying in a written statement that "there will be a strong Democratic candidate for Senate in Delaware."

National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Colin Reed said in a statement that Biden's decision "represents a major recruiting setback for national Democrats, who have been counting on his candidacy to keep the vice president's former seat in Democratic control. As we saw in Massachusetts last week, voters clearly stated that these seats belong to the people -- not to either political party or dynasty."

Castle said Delawareans need a "strong and independent voice" in the Senate, adding that his commitment "has never been stronger."

A formidable foe

Without a Biden seeking the office for the first time in nearly four decades, Democrats must find a candidate against Castle, a former two-term governor and one of the most popular politicians in Delaware history. Castle has $1.7 million in his campaign fund.

Two nonpartisan political newsletters in Washington said Monday that the GOP's prospects of capturing a seat that has eluded them for 37 years are looking rosier.

After Biden's announcement, the Cook Political Report recast the Senate race from "toss-up" to "solid Republican."

Stu Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, called Monday's development "a severe blow to Democrats' chances of holding this Senate seat in November. All of the dominos are falling in the GOP's direction this election cycle, and Delaware is merely the latest one to go."

The president's party typically loses congressional seats in the mid-term elections, a process that began last week when Republican Scott Brown won Ted Kennedy's old seat in Massachusetts, costing Democrats their filibuster-proof 60-40 majority. Besides Delaware, the GOP has targeted Senate seats in North Dakota, Nevada, Colorado and Connecticut, among others.

"I would say the Democrats are deeply disappointed and find themselves in the worst of places right now," said Jennifer Duffy, a Cook political analyst. "Not only do they have a problem in Delaware, because they need a candidate, but this feeds into the larger narrative of how much trouble they're going to be in in November."

Search for a candidate

The seat is open only because Joe Biden became vice president. In 2008, he ran for both vice president and his Senate seat, which he won handily.

That left Gov. Ruth Ann Minner to name his replacement, and she chose Ted Kaufman, Joe Biden's longtime aide and adviser. Senate terms are six years, but when an interim senator is named, by law, the seat must go up for election again during the next congressional election -- in this case, 2010 -- so the election in November will be for the remaining four years of the term.

Though Joe Biden said last week he hoped Kaufman would run if Beau did not, Kaufman reiterated Monday what he said when he was appointed -- he's only an interim senator.

"Serving the people of Delaware in the U.S. Senate is as fulfilling, challenging, and humbling as I imagined when I was appointed," Kaufman said in a written statement. "But as I said at the time, I will not seek election to a full term."

Beau Biden said Delaware has a "deep bench" of Democrats from which to field a candidate, though in interviews with political insiders Monday, the only name that emerged was Coons'.

A Coons candidacy would not jeopardize his position as county executive. He is in his second term, which doesn't end until January 2013. By law, he cannot seek a third term.

Rhett Ruggerio, former Democratic national committeeman for Delaware, said Coons, former legal counsel at W.L. Gore & Associates, "can raise money, is a great debater and will campaign his butt off."

Coons "knows the issues," Ruggerio said. "If you ask him about health care, he's going to give you the sort of response that will knock your socks off. You can't hit him with an issue on the forefront of Congress that he's not well-versed on."

John Daniello, chairman of the Democratic Party, called Coons "a fine possibility."

Though Castle has not lost once in 11 previous statewide elections, Delaware has become increasingly Democratic in recent years. As of Jan. 1, registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans 287,821 to 180,479, with 143,167 voters registered in another party or unaffiliated.

Democratic spokeswoman Murphy called Castle a vulnerable "long-term, establishment Republican who supports the very policies that led our country into fiscal crisis.

"From voting against financial protections for consumers to voting against a critical jobs bill, Mike Castle walks in lock step with Republicans. Come November, the people of Delaware aren't going to put someone in the Senate who will do nothing but carry water for the Republicans."

'A job to finish'

When Beau Biden returned from Iraq, he said on ABC's "Good Morning America" he was "absolutely, absolutely" considering a Senate run.

Even as the weeks and months passed without any decision, observers said Biden still had time and enough of a national profile with his father as vice president to raise the millions of dollars needed to challenge Castle.

But at 9:29 a.m. Monday, Biden campaign spokesman Joe Rogalsky e-mailed The News Journal with the subject line: "Message from Beau Biden: My Duty."

The e-mail was a letter to supporters, in which he acknowledged he gave "serious consideration" to a Senate campaign.

Biden's letter cited the nation's "extraordinarily difficult" challenges -- the economy, health care, energy and other issues -- as ones that will determine our children's future.

Biden's letter added: "As someone who has had the privilege of serving with the bravest men and women on this planet, I care deeply about how we treat our returning veterans and how we resolve our involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan."

The bottom line, though, Biden wrote, is that "my first responsibilities are here in Delaware. ... I have a job to finish. And that's what I must do."

Said Daniello: "I truly believe the [Bradley rape case] played a big role in it. Beau's not the type of person to give on something he's working on."

Delaware's other senator, Democrat Tom Carper, said Biden made a sensible choice.

"He's got plenty to do right where he is," Carper said. "I just don't think he felt good about just walking away from those responsibilities as AG and not seeing his wife and children for the next six months."

Election 2010: Delaware Senate: Delaware Senate: Castle 56%, Coons 27%

Rasmussen Reports

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

A first look at Delaware’s U.S. Senate race following Beau Biden’s decision not to run shows why Democrats were hoping Biden would enter the race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Delaware voters shows longtime GOP congressman Mike Castle leading New Castle County Executive Chris Coons 56% to 27%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and 13% are undecided.

The survey was taken Monday night following the announcement by Biden, the state’s Democratic attorney general, that he will not run for the Senate. In October, Castle led Biden 47% to 42% in a hypothetical match-up for the seat Biden’s father, now the vice president, held for 36 years.

The younger Biden’s decision, coming just after the upset GOP Senate win in Massachusetts, still took Democrats by surprise, particularly in a state that has trended blue in recent years. Coons’ name is the only one that has surfaced so far as a possible replacement, although he has yet to formally announce his candidacy. Ted Kaufman, appointed by the governor to the elder Biden’s seat following the November 2008 election, reiterated yesterday that he has no intention of seeking a full Senate term.

Castle, who is an announced candidate, holds virtually identical two-to-one leads over Coons among both male and female voters.

While 86% of Republicans support Castle, just 49%of Delaware Democrats back Coons. Thirty-one percent (31%) of Democrats favor the moderate GOP candidate. Sixty-one percent (61%) of the state’s unaffiliated voters choose Castle at this point.

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Delaware voters have a very favorable opinion of Castle, while just seven percent (7%) view him very unfavorably. Only nine percent (9%) have no opinion of the Republican hopeful who has served as governor and lieutenant governor and been the state’s only congressman since 1993.

Coons is viewed very favorably by 10% and very unfavorably by nine percent (9%). But 23% don’t know enough about Coons to venture even a soft favorable or unfavorable opinion of him.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Just five percent (5%) of voters in the state rate the economy as good or excellent. Fifty percent (50%) say it’s poor. Thirty-one percent (31%) believe the economy is getting better, but 39% say it’s getting worse.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Delaware voters say cutting taxes is a better way to create jobs than increasing government spending. Just 14% say increasing spending is better.

Only 33% think it’s likely that Congress will able to agree this year on a smaller, bipartisan health care plan, with 10% who say it’s very likely. Sixty percent (60%) say chances of such a plan are not very or not at all likely. This is roughly comparable to views among all voters nationwide.

Following the Christmas Day terrorist attempt to blow up a U.S. airliner, 68% in Delaware say another terrorist attack in the United States in the next year is at least somewhat likely. Delaware voters are narrowly divided over whether America is safer today than it was before September 11, 2001: 42% say yes, 39% say no.

Thirty-seven percent (37%) say the government’s response to the Christmas Day incident has been good or excellent, but 34% say it’s been poor.

Seventy-two percent (72%) favor the use of full-body scanners at airports.

Barack Obama carried 62% of the vote in Delaware in the November 2008 election, but just 50% of the state’s voters now approve of the president’s job performance, down four points from October. Forty-nine percent (49%) disapprove. Approval of the president’s performance has also declined nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) approve of the job Democratic Governor Jack Markell is doing, with 15% who strongly approve. Thirty-six percent (36%) disapprove, including 12% who strongly disapprove. These numbers are basically unchanged from October.

Democratic Senate incumbents who currently trail their challengers include Harry Reid in Nevada, Michael Bennet in Colorado, Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas and Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania. Barbara Boxer from California finds herself in a more competitive race than usual.

Republicans lead open-seat Senate races in Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Dakota and Ohio. Democrats lead in Connecticut, and the race is close in Illinois. A commentary by political analyst Larry Sabato, suggests that if the election were held today, “the (59-seat) Democratic majority in the Senate would be reduced to just 52 seats.”

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

WILMINGTON---      State Senator Colin Bonini showed a wide fundraising advantage over two Democratic opponents in the 2010 race for Delaware State Treasurer. The candidates year-end contribution reports were filed yesterday.

Bonini announced his campaign had raised over $129,000 from individual contributors since September and that he ended the year with almost $100,000 cash-on-hand. By contrast, incumbent State Treasurer Velda Jones-Potter raised just $13,000, while Jones-Potter’s opponent in the Democratic primary, Chip Flowers, raised just $31,000. Jones-Potter and Flowers both made significant personal contributions to their campaigns to remain competitive in the fundraising reports.

“I believe that the number of individual contributors to my campaign, which far outpaces my opponents’, shows a depth and breadth to my effort,” Senator Bonini said. “My opponents have both lent themselves significant sums of money, but you can’t run state government on a credit card and you can’t run a campaign that way either.”

“I’m grateful for the support I’ve received from Delawareans up and down the state who agree with me that Delaware’s spending problem needs to be solved,” Bonini said. “It’s time to bring some common-sense back into our state’s fiscal management. As Delaware’s next State Treasurer, that’s exactly what I intend to do.”

State Senator Colin Bonini is showing a visitor around Black Dog Farm, the 10-acre property in an unincorporated area of Kent County where he and his wife live in a three-story log home and stable her five horses. Even in this bucolic setting, Bonini can’t resist making a political point.

“The Magnolia post office is a stone’s throw away,” he says, “but our address is the Camden post office, which is a couple of miles in the other direction.”

He sighs. “Classic U. S. government.”

Wasteful spending, excessive taxes and other governmental deficiencies are Bonini’s mortal enemies, and he opposes them with the glee of a happy warrior waging the good, ultra-conservative fight. His vocal and detailed criticism of the state’s $3.091 billion budget for 2009, combined with an ebullient personality, have made him perhaps the most prominent among the state legislature’s Young Turks, a loosely defined group that urges budget cuts, reduced taxes and smaller government. All Republicans, they include representatives Greg Lavelle, Deborah Hudson and Gerald Hocker, Senator Joe Booth, and former senator Charlie Copeland, who has stayed active in state politics since losing the race for lieutenant governor in 2008.

Bonini is hands-down the most conservative of the group, often casting the only “no” vote on measures before the Senate, thus his nickname: No-nini.

“I believe in very limited government,” he says, “and my basic philosophy is that people will spend their money better than I ever will, no matter how well intentioned I am, and I and all my colleagues are well intentioned.

“But I am not one of these get-rid-of-government guys. From the human services perspective, the government clearly has a role. But I think, especially in Delaware, government has just grown way too large and way too expensive.”

The transplanted Californian was called “the longest shot in the state of Delaware” when he became the Senate’s youngest member in 1994 at the age of 29. He represents the 16th District, which encompasses southern Kent County and a small section of northern Sussex County.

From the start, he espoused his conservative credo, cautioning colleagues against runaway spending and a growing state bureaucracy. In June 2000 he predicted that “Delaware’s spending habits are a train wreck waiting to happen.” Sure enough, Governor Jack Markell faced a projected $800 million shortfall when he prepared his first budget last year. 

Page 2: Blast of the Big-time Spenders, continues...

Bonini held that the shortfall could be met by slashing state government, especially the payroll, without new taxes. Pointing out that the state’s 32,000 employees represent 46 percent of governmental expenses, he says, “The number has increased 15 percent in just the last eight years. We’ve got to find a way to shrink that number, and we’ve got to do it in a humane way. I don’t think we should lay people off. For one thing, it doesn’t save that much money because we’re self-insured, so we have to pay unemployment insurance.”

His solution: add two years to state workers’ pension time. He believed it would be a powerful incentive for them to take early retirement. While he says his colleagues “were intrigued by the idea,” they didn’t act on it.

“I think they will, though,” he says. “There is an institutional memory from the last time we did an early retirement incentive, in 1991 or ’92. It ended up being a disaster because within a year or two they basically filled all the positions that they [eliminated]. So they actually didn’t save any money. The key is it won’t work if you don’t have the discipline to not fill the vacancies.”

Bonini had other cost-cutting ideas too, which he put into a comprehensive and even entertaining Power Point presentation that he took to voters in all three counties.

First, though, the presentation focused on the burgeoning state budget, which has doubled in the last 12 years. Bonini pointed out such expenses as the $2.2 million lease on a helicopter that didn’t fly for 17 months, two golf courses and two marinas purchased for a combined $33 million, and 7,259 cell phones for state workers that cost almost $4 million.

Aside from the early retirement incentive, his other solutions to the budget dilemma are a two-year suspension of prevailing wages (which he claims make government projects 25 percent to 35 percent more expensive than they should be), consolidating school districts and their services, and a constitutional amendment that limits increases in state spending to inflation plus population growth.

His fellow Turks had already voiced support for most of these measures, especially the prevailing wage recommendation, but they credit Bonini for bringing statewide attention to them. Says Joe Booth, “The Bonini Plan drove the [budget] debate and changed it a little bit and impacted our decisions. Colin did the homework that [the rest of us] only surmised.”

“He’s been a consistent and long-term advocate for these ideas,” says Lavelle. “My sense is that he was often dismissed by his colleagues and some folks in Dover because we were drowning in money, and he’s sitting there saying stop spending. Things have certainly turned around, and he’s been out in front of this, way out in front, compared to a lot of folks.”

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Hocker is another who has railed against the state’s profligate ways throughout his eight years in the House. “You can’t continue to increase spending, doubling it over a 12-year period, and expect it not to come back and bite you,” says the Ocean View Republican. “Under [Governor Ruth Ann] Minner, we increased state workers an average of 530 per year for the eight years she was in office.”

Hocker believes that besides cutting expenses, the state must attract small businesses and help those already here to grow. “We’ve been rated 49th out of 50 states in entrepreneurship [in a study by the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation], and that’s disgraceful,” he says. He applauds Markell’s choice of Alan Levin as director of economic development, but, Hocker says, “With the state’s anti-business atmosphere, that put him on crutches, and with the last tax package we passed [2009], we put him in a wheelchair. We have to change that and allow Alan to do his job.”

Not everyone is a Bonini fan. Though he likes him personally, Democratic Representative John Kowalko says, “Colin has good intentions, but I think his programs, his plans are so limited that there’s no wiggle room, and I don’t think that’s economically feasible.” He also faults Bonini for focusing too much on cutting government while failing to look for increased revenue sources, such as corporate taxes.

Bonini’s response, repeated every time he presented his Power Point: “Delaware doesn’t have a revenue problem. It has a spending problem.”

“Lots of states, like California and South Carolina, really don’t have the money,” he says. “We have the money. Even in a terrible economy, we still brought in $3 billion. This year’s general fund revenue includes about 30 percent personal income and just under 40 percent business taxes and corporate fees. Another 10 percent came from the lottery. We didn’t have the revenue-side problem that most states have, yet we still managed to get ourselves into a big problem, and that’s tremendously frustrating.”

Alan Muller, head of Green Delaware, also is a critic of Bonini, who frankly admits he is no environmentalist. “He genuinely thinks government is evil and we should have as little of it as possible,” says Muller. “I’ve gotten increasingly disappointed in him over the last several years. I don’t think his views are sound. He’s very ideological.”

Again, though, Muller finds the senator likeable. “Colin’s a pleasant guy. He’s courteous, treats people with respect, and he’s sincere in his views.”

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As Markell ended his first year in office, the Turks seemed willing to give the rookie governor a mulligan, though they were unhappy with the 2009 budget and the new taxes. Says Lavelle, “We often ask questions [of the Markell administration], and to be perfectly honest, I don’t think we get frank answers. But Jack had the perfectly legitimate—‘excuse’ isn’t the word I’m looking for—statement: ‘I just got here.’” The Sharpley representative indicates he will give Markell a few more months to get the feel of his office.

Bonini takes a similar stance. “Jack and I get along well,” he says. “He has said to me—paraphrasing here—‘Look, Colin, I agree with you a lot. Our government has grown too much in certain areas, but basically I just started and so next year we’re really gonna work on that.’ And I believe him. Of course, I’m more blunt. I say, ‘Cut the government,’ and he says, ‘We have to deliver services more efficiently.’ But basically I’m going to give Jack a year. On June 30, 2010 (the deadline for adopting the next budget), let’s see where he is.” 

That budget may be the last one Bonini will vote on for a while. He plans to run for state treasurer this year, when the term of current officeholder Velda Jones-Potter expires. Appointed by Markell in January 2009 to finish the term he left unfinished when he became governor, Jones-Potter is expected to run for the office, along with Chip Flowers, another Democrat. But the 6-foot-5, 300-pound Bonini, with his quick wit and constant smile, is a jolly giant with a natural flair for campaigning, so he should have a good shot at winning. And if he loses, he will keep his Senate seat until the end of his current term in 2012.

The Turks will certainly support his candidacy. Says Hudson, “He loves the issue of taxes and spending, so I think he would be a really good representative to have in a statewide office. He would be an excellent advocate and friend of the taxpayer.”

“I’m intrigued not by what the treasurer’s office is now but what it should become, which would be a watchdog agency, someone who would watch where tax dollars are going,” Bonini says. “Right now, nobody knows who the treasurer is.”

Then, chuckling, he adds, “That will change, by the way, if I get elected, for good or bad.”

A year from now, when we are in the final weeks of the midterm elections, voters across the country will likely be focused on a state that has rarely drawn attention from any but its own residents. Delaware, noted only for its gentlemanly politics, will probably be the site of one of the most hard-fought and headline-grabbing Senate races in America.

Republican Rep. Mike Castle, who has never lost in 12 trips to the statewide general election ballot, will likely face Democratic Attorney General Beau Biden, the son of Vice President Joe Biden, the longtime Delaware senator.

As Democrats from Connecticut to Colorado struggle to hold onto their filibuster-proof 60-seat margin, no state -- not even Barack Obama's Illinois -- will have higher priority for the White House than Delaware.

With the seat-warmer appointee who was named to succeed the vice president in January already having announced that he will not run next year, young Biden would normally be the favorite in this Democratic state. Having just returned from a year in Iraq as a Delaware National Guardsman, he has no real competition for the nomination -- and is expected to announce within weeks.

But in Castle, he faces the most consistent winner, other than the elder Biden, in the last 43 years of Delaware history. Castle has probably had personal conversations with most of the quarter-million voters likely to cast ballots next year. He has won statewide races for governor and lieutenant governor and has rarely finished below 65 percent for the lone House seat.

Several factors add to the intrigue of the prospective race. In addition to the partisan differences, Biden represents a sharp generational choice for Delaware voters. At 40, he is 30 years younger than Castle, who thought long and hard about retiring next year before delighting Republican strategists by signing up to run.

Democrats hope that Castle's winning streak will prove no more durable than that of former Republican Sen. Bill Roth, who was toppled by the much younger former Gov. Tom Carper in 2000, the last seriously contested race.

But where Roth was a staunch conservative in an increasingly Democratic state, Castle is a leader and survivor among the declining ranks of moderate House Republicans. As such, he is a particularly accurate barometer of Obama's political health and the dynamics of the House of Representatives.

Castle is a notably quiet person, but he has demonstrated plenty of backbone. When George W. Bush was advertising his readiness to veto a bill expanding stem cell research, Castle teamed with a liberal Colorado Democrat and forced Bush to carry out his threat. Castle was also one of the few Republicans to support campaign finance reform and oppose drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.

He told me that he is convinced, based on a meeting with Obama, that the president is sincere in wanting to pass bipartisan legislation, but he said the House Democratic leadership "sees no reason to consult with Republicans." He joined all other House Republicans in voting against the economic stimulus bill and opposed the version of health care reform that came out of his committee last summer.

He strongly suggested in our interview that he will continue to oppose the Democratic health legislation because "I can't see where it is going to save any money."

When I asked if he thought he could safely oppose both the key bills on Obama's domestic agenda and be elected in a state the president carried easily, he said, "I have been more supportive than most Republicans of Obama's environmental and social issues, but I'm not going to vote for a program that I think is too costly and unmanageable."

The early polls on a possible Castle-Biden race give the Republican double-digit leads, but both parties expect this to become a close contest. Castle can count on ample support from Washington, but obviously so can Biden if he jumps into the battle.

The way the Republicans see it, Mike Castle's announcement Tuesday that he would run for the U.S. Senate seat Democrat Joe Biden held for almost four decades was just more proof of the obvious:

The tide is turning for the Republican Party in Delaware. The wind is back in the GOP's sails -- why, just look at the Kalmar Nyckel floating by on the Christina River, as if on cue, as if the tall ship of state was off on a gallant, noble, important new mission.

National Committeewoman Priscilla Rakestraw and other Republican leaders point to three consecutive special-election victories, in which GOP candidates -- Tom Kovach, Joe Booth, and Ruth Briggs King -- won seats in the General Assembly since last November.

Castle was part of all those campaigns, she said.

It wasn't clear at all that Castle would launch another campaign of his own, though. Some thought the 70-year-old Republican might retire after nine terms in the U.S. House of Representatives, two terms as Delaware's governor, two as its lieutenant governor and several terms as a state legislator.

"It's a bit of a surprise to a lot of the so-called political insiders," said Rhett Ruggerio, former Democratic National Committeeman. "I think they were convinced he was going to retire. But if I'm Mike Castle, I don't see why I wouldn't run. ... If there's anybody that has the experience, it's him."

Ruggerio said there is no doubt the pendulum has swung slightly in the Republican Party's favor. Slightly is a key word there.

"But keep in mind Delaware is still a heavily Democratic state, one of the most Democratic in the nation," he said.

Castle is the Republican Party's undefeated champion and represents the party's best hope of winning a U.S. Senate seat, said Gov. Pete du Pont, who was governor from 1977-85 and spent three terms in the U.S. House.

Du Pont was among those who urged Castle to run for the Senate.

"The best elected official we have in terms of running for statewide office obviously is Mike Castle," said du Pont. "He's done it a great many times -- for governor, for Congress. From a political perspective, that's a good thing. And even though Delaware is a much more Democratic state than it used to be back when Mike and I were governor, he has a very good chance of winning. He is the best chance the national Republican Party has of gaining a Senate seat."

And there, du Pont believes, is where Castle's experience and level-headed insights are most needed now. "From a public policy perspective, he would give a very sensible view of things. ... And if you see what the Senate is doing, we need some Republicans who think the way Mike Castle thinks," du Pont said.

Republican attorney Tim Houseal said the party's resurgence comes on the heels of a historic and unique presidential election year.

"We were running against the tide then," Houseal said. "The tide has started to turn. People are going to be very excited. ... We need his experience and moderating voice in the Senate."

The announcement clears the way for Republicans to announce their candidacy for Castle's House seat.

"Republicans will have an advantage in this election," said former state GOP chairman Basil Battaglia. "It's a mid-term election and the president hasn't pulled his agenda together yet."

Du Pont said victories in the local special elections show the party has candidates that appeal to Delaware voters now.

But the GOP's resurgence, while significant for the party, will not decide this race, Democrat Ruggerio said. "I don't think people will vote party line," he said. "They'll vote the individual. And they tend to know both of these candidates."

That's what will win the race for Castle, Rakestraw said. Voters will choose Castle's experience over the Biden name, referring to Attorney General Beau Biden, who many believe will run for his father's old seat.

"The Biden family has never missed an opportunity to seize a political opportunity," she said. "I don't think they will this time, either."

This time, though, the brands are different, she said. Castle is a proven leader.

"Junior Biden is a new product on the market," she said. "It's kind of like Bud and Bud Lite."

Ending months of speculation, Mike Castle set up what could be the nation's most heated political race next year with his surprise announcement Tuesday that he will be running for the U.S. Senate.

Standing in the shade with his wife, Jane, the 70-year-old Republican made the announcement at a low-key news conference in Wilmington's Tubman-Garrett Riverfront Park in front of a small crowd of supporters and members of the media. One of Delaware's most popular politicians, the nine-term congressman had kept his decision secret even from top Republicans, many of whom thought he might retire.

Republican Party regulars, who had feared the prospect of an election with no big name to top the ticket, seemed to collectively breathe a sigh of relief.

"Thank God he's running," said former Republican Gov. Dale Wolf, who was lieutenant governor during Castle's second term as governor and served as governor for about three weeks when Castle left for his first term in Congress. "We need him now."

The only missing piece for a political clash that could become the most expensive in Delaware history and attract wide national attention is whether Attorney General Beau Biden, as expected, will also seek the seat held until last year by his father, Vice President Joe Biden.

Castle's decision follows months of intense lobbying from high-profile Republicans such as Arizona Sen. John McCain, the GOP's 2008 presidential candidate. Castle kept supporters and opponents in suspense for months about whether he would retire or run for the Senate. He had already said he had little interest in seeking re-election to the House.

Castle said he expects Beau Biden to be his opponent, but has not spoken with him.

Beau Biden isn't offering any hints.

"I just got back from a year in Iraq," Biden said after Castle's announcement. "I'm spending time with my family. I'm getting back to work and there will be time to make a decision."

Joe Biden has said repeatedly that he wants to see his son hold his former seat. Castle said he tried to call Joe Biden on Tuesday morning to let him know he would be seeking the office Biden wants for his son. Castle said he was unable to reach the vice president and spoke with his chief of staff.

Castle said he thought it would be "inappropriate" to call Beau Biden directly because he does not know him, but called his father because he considers him a friend.

Sam Hoff, a political science professor at Delaware State University, said the time could be right for Beau Biden to run for the Senate, especially since the winner in 2010 will have the best position in 2014.

"The old adage, 'Strike while the iron is hot,' is something that Beau is going to have to think about," Hoff said.

A Castle-Biden race would have huge ramifications, not just locally, but nationally, since it could break the Democrats' nominally filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. And that would mean a lot of money flowing in from donors.

"I would expect whoever runs on the other side to raise a significant amount of money," Castle said.

Fundraising was part of the reason Castle said he announced his intentions so early. But Castle added that Beau Biden played a role in deciding when to go public with his Senate bid.

"We knew Beau was coming back from Iraq ... and I didn't want make the announcement until that was over," Castle said.

High-dollar campaign

Hoff said he foresees candidates raising up to $1 million a day at the height of the campaign. "We're going to be looking at not just reaching but smashing some of the financial records in terms of spending."

Hoff said the state could also see politicians of national stature -- perhaps President Barack Obama -- campaigning in Delaware.

"You would most likely see Joe [Biden] call in some favors," Hoff said.

Castle may face a primary with fellow Republican Christine O'Donnell, who ran unsuccessfully for the U.S. Senate in 2006 and 2008, and who said she plans to run again.

Castle said he would like to avoid a primary going into next year's election.

"Primaries always make things more difficult," he said.

O'Donnell said after Castle's announcement that she's staying in the race.

"I have absolutely no plans of withdrawing," she said "I have the utmost respect for Congressman Castle. I hope it will be a respectful primary about the issues."

John Daniello, chairman of the Delaware Democratic Party, said he will not comment on who he expects to be his party's candidate, but he expects that person to win.

"I think all of us are underestimating the knowledge of our constituency," Daniello said. "When the marbles are down, it will be about which candidate can best do the job for the state of Delaware, and that's where I think we will come out on top."

When Castle called Delaware Democratic Sen. Tom Carper with the news Tuesday morning, Carper wished him well. But Castle's bid sets up a "tough situation" for Carper.

He considers Castle a good friend and views him as a formidable candidate. But he's also supportive of Beau Biden. Carper expects Biden to run for the remainder of his father's Senate term.

"I'd be very surprised if he doesn't," Carper said during an interview Tuesday.

Carper said the potential race would be a "clash of the titans."

"If they run against each other, it will be one for the records," Carper said.

Carper's intentions

Waiting for the 2012 Senate election may not be an option for Biden. Carper said he intends to run for re-election when his term expires then.

"You know how some people hedge and they say, 'Oh, I'll decide when I get closer and see how I feel?' " Carper said with a laugh. "No. I think I'll run."

Even in the hours before Castle's announcement, many members of the inner circle of the state Republican party didn't know what Castle was going to do.

But when Castle made his decision public, they were excited to hear Castle would be running for the upper chamber.

After serving two terms as governor, Castle was elected to the U.S. House in 1993, when he left office to assume the congressional post.

Though Democrats hold majorities in Delaware and Washington, former Gov. Wolf believes Castle has extraordinary crossover appeal.

"A lot of Democrats and independents vote for Mike," Wolf said. "They respect him, and they've seen him take up their causes."

Republican strategist Don Mell said he thinks Castle's history of civility and willingness to work across the aisle will be translated into the campaign, keeping the discussion away from attacks by the candidates.

"I think he made the right decision for himself and for Delaware," Mell said. "He'll set a tone for bipartisanship that we're lacking in Washington."

State Rep. Tom Kovach, who is rumored to be interested in running for Castle's House seat, said he thinks Castle will provide a strong top of the ticket for Republicans. Last November, Republicans took a beating, losing every statewide election except Castle's and losing majority control of the state House.

Kovach, R-Brandywine Hundred, said he sees Castle as a strong leader that the party will be able to rally behind going into the midterm elections.

"I'm just so happy that Congressman Castle has announced," Kovach said.

State Republican Party Chairman Tom Ross thinks Castle can provide a moderate voice for the state.

"In these troubled times, Delawareans of all political backgrounds should be thrilled that Mike Castle will bring his integrity, knowledge and common-sense approach to the United States Senate." Ross said. "The 2010 election will be an exciting one, and with Mike Castle leading the way, I'm confident of our success."

GOP Chairman Statement on Castle Announcement

WILMINGTON----            Delaware Republican State Chairman Tom Ross released the following statement today regarding Congressman Mike Castle’s announcement.

“Today Congressman Mike Castle announced that he will be running to represent the people of Delaware in the United States Senate. This is an exciting announcement, and I am delighted that Mike Castle will be heading our statewide ticket in 2010.”

“Throughout his time in public service, Mike Castle has consistently put the interests of Delawareans first. He has a track record of balancing budgets, creating jobs, and bringing people together for the common good. He will be a tremendous asset to the State of Delaware in the United States Senate. “

“In these troubled times Delawareans of all political background should be thrilled that Mike Castle will bring his integrity, knowledge, and commonsense approach to the United States Senate. The 2010 election will be an exciting one, and with Mike Castle leading the way, I’m confident of our success.”

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