Election 2010: Delaware Senate: Delaware Senate: Castle 56%, Coons 27%

Rasmussen Reports

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

A first look at Delaware’s U.S. Senate race following Beau Biden’s decision not to run shows why Democrats were hoping Biden would enter the race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Delaware voters shows longtime GOP congressman Mike Castle leading New Castle County Executive Chris Coons 56% to 27%. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate, and 13% are undecided.

The survey was taken Monday night following the announcement by Biden, the state’s Democratic attorney general, that he will not run for the Senate. In October, Castle led Biden 47% to 42% in a hypothetical match-up for the seat Biden’s father, now the vice president, held for 36 years.

The younger Biden’s decision, coming just after the upset GOP Senate win in Massachusetts, still took Democrats by surprise, particularly in a state that has trended blue in recent years. Coons’ name is the only one that has surfaced so far as a possible replacement, although he has yet to formally announce his candidacy. Ted Kaufman, appointed by the governor to the elder Biden’s seat following the November 2008 election, reiterated yesterday that he has no intention of seeking a full Senate term.

Castle, who is an announced candidate, holds virtually identical two-to-one leads over Coons among both male and female voters.

While 86% of Republicans support Castle, just 49%of Delaware Democrats back Coons. Thirty-one percent (31%) of Democrats favor the moderate GOP candidate. Sixty-one percent (61%) of the state’s unaffiliated voters choose Castle at this point.

Twenty-nine percent (29%) of Delaware voters have a very favorable opinion of Castle, while just seven percent (7%) view him very unfavorably. Only nine percent (9%) have no opinion of the Republican hopeful who has served as governor and lieutenant governor and been the state’s only congressman since 1993.

Coons is viewed very favorably by 10% and very unfavorably by nine percent (9%). But 23% don’t know enough about Coons to venture even a soft favorable or unfavorable opinion of him.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Just five percent (5%) of voters in the state rate the economy as good or excellent. Fifty percent (50%) say it’s poor. Thirty-one percent (31%) believe the economy is getting better, but 39% say it’s getting worse.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of Delaware voters say cutting taxes is a better way to create jobs than increasing government spending. Just 14% say increasing spending is better.

Only 33% think it’s likely that Congress will able to agree this year on a smaller, bipartisan health care plan, with 10% who say it’s very likely. Sixty percent (60%) say chances of such a plan are not very or not at all likely. This is roughly comparable to views among all voters nationwide.

Following the Christmas Day terrorist attempt to blow up a U.S. airliner, 68% in Delaware say another terrorist attack in the United States in the next year is at least somewhat likely. Delaware voters are narrowly divided over whether America is safer today than it was before September 11, 2001: 42% say yes, 39% say no.

Thirty-seven percent (37%) say the government’s response to the Christmas Day incident has been good or excellent, but 34% say it’s been poor.

Seventy-two percent (72%) favor the use of full-body scanners at airports.

Barack Obama carried 62% of the vote in Delaware in the November 2008 election, but just 50% of the state’s voters now approve of the president’s job performance, down four points from October. Forty-nine percent (49%) disapprove. Approval of the president’s performance has also declined nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) approve of the job Democratic Governor Jack Markell is doing, with 15% who strongly approve. Thirty-six percent (36%) disapprove, including 12% who strongly disapprove. These numbers are basically unchanged from October.

Democratic Senate incumbents who currently trail their challengers include Harry Reid in Nevada, Michael Bennet in Colorado, Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas and Arlen Specter in Pennsylvania. Barbara Boxer from California finds herself in a more competitive race than usual.

Republicans lead open-seat Senate races in Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Dakota and Ohio. Democrats lead in Connecticut, and the race is close in Illinois. A commentary by political analyst Larry Sabato, suggests that if the election were held today, “the (59-seat) Democratic majority in the Senate would be reduced to just 52 seats.”

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For months, Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden has been courted by national Democrats, including his father, Vice President Joe Biden, to run for his dad's former U.S. Senate seat.

The drumbeat, fueled by Beau Biden himself, grew so strong that political insiders and pundits in Delaware and beyond said it was a near-certainty he would enter the race against Republican Mike Castle, Delaware's nine-term U.S. representative, in what was shaping up as one of the hottest races in America.

The contest is not to be. On Monday, the younger Biden dashed those hopes, saying he would instead seek a second four-year term as attorney general.

The move leaves Democrats scrambling to find a candidate to run against Castle in November for the Senate seat Joe Biden held for 36 years.

With a thinning field and little time left to launch a serious campaign, New Castle County Executive Chris Coons, now in his second term, emerged as the front-runner to challenge Castle for the seat.

"I am seriously considering running for the open U.S. Senate seat in Delaware," Coons said. "I see this as an important opportunity to draw a contrast and give Delaware a chance for a strong candidate from my party. I think Delaware needs a senator who is going to fight hard for working people, is going to be able to help business create jobs and keep our communities safe -- the things I've done every day as county executive."

Coons spent the day fielding calls from national media and friends and politicians inside and outside Delaware. Coons and Lt. Gov. Matt Denn, also considered a potential candidate, "have traded messages," Coons said. Former Lt. Gov. John Carney, who is running for Castle's vacated House seat, also spoke with Coons Monday evening.

"I need some time to meet with my family and those who are close to me to make a final decision, and I will do so within a matter of days, no more than a week," Coons said. "It has been a remarkable day. I've gotten a whole range of calls."

Biden said the main reason for his decision was that a Senate campaign would take his focus away from "a case of great consequence" -- the prosecution of Dr. Earl B. Bradley, the pediatrician from Lewes accused of being a pedophile. Bradley, 56, was charged in December with raping nine girl patients from 3 months to 13 years old. Prosecutors have said the number of victims dating back to 1998 could surpass 100.

"It became very crystal clear that it was simply impossible to continue to focus my attention, which is like a laser on the case in Lewes, and at the same time mount a Senate campaign," the 40-year-old Biden said.

"My responsibility is to make sure that I do everything to prosecute the case to the fullest extent of the law and do everything I can for the victims."

Castle, 70, who announced his candidacy in October and has consistently led in polls of the hypothetical matchup, said he respects Biden's decision, calling it "not only a political one but a very personal one." Castle noted that Biden is married with two young children, and returned to Delaware in October after a year in Iraq with his National Guard unit.

Still, Castle said, he was "somewhat" surprised and hinted at disappointment that the much-ballyhooed race would not take place. "I thought all along Beau would be my opponent," he said.

Castle also raised the possibility that should he win, he might not seek re-election in 2014. Retirement is "certainly a possibility," Castle said.

A difficult decision

Biden, who would not discuss his future beyond November's election, rejected the suggestion that other factors -- the recent loss by a Democrat in the race for Sen. Ted Kennedy's longtime seat; the polls showing Castle ahead; and a spate of collapsed murder cases handled by his office -- played a role in his decision.

"No," he said, without elaboration.

Biden would not say exactly when he and his wife, Hallie, made the decision, saying only that it was "over the last several weeks." He would not discuss his father's role.

"I was humbled by the encouragement I got from a lot of different corners, but the reality is that this is a decision that Hallie and I made," Biden said. "The whole family is supportive of the decision."

Although Vice President Biden had wanted his son to run, he applauded Beau's decision in a written statement. "I know I sound like the proud father I am, but all of his life, Beau has put duty above any personal ambition, and this decision today is another example of that exceptional character trait."

Deirdre Murphy, spokeswoman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, had said last week her group "fully expects and hopes Beau Biden will run." But Monday, she would not comment on Biden's decision, saying in a written statement that "there will be a strong Democratic candidate for Senate in Delaware."

National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Colin Reed said in a statement that Biden's decision "represents a major recruiting setback for national Democrats, who have been counting on his candidacy to keep the vice president's former seat in Democratic control. As we saw in Massachusetts last week, voters clearly stated that these seats belong to the people -- not to either political party or dynasty."

Castle said Delawareans need a "strong and independent voice" in the Senate, adding that his commitment "has never been stronger."

A formidable foe

Without a Biden seeking the office for the first time in nearly four decades, Democrats must find a candidate against Castle, a former two-term governor and one of the most popular politicians in Delaware history. Castle has $1.7 million in his campaign fund.

Two nonpartisan political newsletters in Washington said Monday that the GOP's prospects of capturing a seat that has eluded them for 37 years are looking rosier.

After Biden's announcement, the Cook Political Report recast the Senate race from "toss-up" to "solid Republican."

Stu Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report, called Monday's development "a severe blow to Democrats' chances of holding this Senate seat in November. All of the dominos are falling in the GOP's direction this election cycle, and Delaware is merely the latest one to go."

The president's party typically loses congressional seats in the mid-term elections, a process that began last week when Republican Scott Brown won Ted Kennedy's old seat in Massachusetts, costing Democrats their filibuster-proof 60-40 majority. Besides Delaware, the GOP has targeted Senate seats in North Dakota, Nevada, Colorado and Connecticut, among others.

"I would say the Democrats are deeply disappointed and find themselves in the worst of places right now," said Jennifer Duffy, a Cook political analyst. "Not only do they have a problem in Delaware, because they need a candidate, but this feeds into the larger narrative of how much trouble they're going to be in in November."

Search for a candidate

The seat is open only because Joe Biden became vice president. In 2008, he ran for both vice president and his Senate seat, which he won handily.

That left Gov. Ruth Ann Minner to name his replacement, and she chose Ted Kaufman, Joe Biden's longtime aide and adviser. Senate terms are six years, but when an interim senator is named, by law, the seat must go up for election again during the next congressional election -- in this case, 2010 -- so the election in November will be for the remaining four years of the term.

Though Joe Biden said last week he hoped Kaufman would run if Beau did not, Kaufman reiterated Monday what he said when he was appointed -- he's only an interim senator.

"Serving the people of Delaware in the U.S. Senate is as fulfilling, challenging, and humbling as I imagined when I was appointed," Kaufman said in a written statement. "But as I said at the time, I will not seek election to a full term."

Beau Biden said Delaware has a "deep bench" of Democrats from which to field a candidate, though in interviews with political insiders Monday, the only name that emerged was Coons'.

A Coons candidacy would not jeopardize his position as county executive. He is in his second term, which doesn't end until January 2013. By law, he cannot seek a third term.

Rhett Ruggerio, former Democratic national committeeman for Delaware, said Coons, former legal counsel at W.L. Gore & Associates, "can raise money, is a great debater and will campaign his butt off."

Coons "knows the issues," Ruggerio said. "If you ask him about health care, he's going to give you the sort of response that will knock your socks off. You can't hit him with an issue on the forefront of Congress that he's not well-versed on."

John Daniello, chairman of the Democratic Party, called Coons "a fine possibility."

Though Castle has not lost once in 11 previous statewide elections, Delaware has become increasingly Democratic in recent years. As of Jan. 1, registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans 287,821 to 180,479, with 143,167 voters registered in another party or unaffiliated.

Democratic spokeswoman Murphy called Castle a vulnerable "long-term, establishment Republican who supports the very policies that led our country into fiscal crisis.

"From voting against financial protections for consumers to voting against a critical jobs bill, Mike Castle walks in lock step with Republicans. Come November, the people of Delaware aren't going to put someone in the Senate who will do nothing but carry water for the Republicans."

'A job to finish'

When Beau Biden returned from Iraq, he said on ABC's "Good Morning America" he was "absolutely, absolutely" considering a Senate run.

Even as the weeks and months passed without any decision, observers said Biden still had time and enough of a national profile with his father as vice president to raise the millions of dollars needed to challenge Castle.

But at 9:29 a.m. Monday, Biden campaign spokesman Joe Rogalsky e-mailed The News Journal with the subject line: "Message from Beau Biden: My Duty."

The e-mail was a letter to supporters, in which he acknowledged he gave "serious consideration" to a Senate campaign.

Biden's letter cited the nation's "extraordinarily difficult" challenges -- the economy, health care, energy and other issues -- as ones that will determine our children's future.

Biden's letter added: "As someone who has had the privilege of serving with the bravest men and women on this planet, I care deeply about how we treat our returning veterans and how we resolve our involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan."

The bottom line, though, Biden wrote, is that "my first responsibilities are here in Delaware. ... I have a job to finish. And that's what I must do."

Said Daniello: "I truly believe the [Bradley rape case] played a big role in it. Beau's not the type of person to give on something he's working on."

Delaware's other senator, Democrat Tom Carper, said Biden made a sensible choice.

"He's got plenty to do right where he is," Carper said. "I just don't think he felt good about just walking away from those responsibilities as AG and not seeing his wife and children for the next six months."

State Senator Colin Bonini is showing a visitor around Black Dog Farm, the 10-acre property in an unincorporated area of Kent County where he and his wife live in a three-story log home and stable her five horses. Even in this bucolic setting, Bonini can’t resist making a political point.

“The Magnolia post office is a stone’s throw away,” he says, “but our address is the Camden post office, which is a couple of miles in the other direction.”

He sighs. “Classic U. S. government.”

Wasteful spending, excessive taxes and other governmental deficiencies are Bonini’s mortal enemies, and he opposes them with the glee of a happy warrior waging the good, ultra-conservative fight. His vocal and detailed criticism of the state’s $3.091 billion budget for 2009, combined with an ebullient personality, have made him perhaps the most prominent among the state legislature’s Young Turks, a loosely defined group that urges budget cuts, reduced taxes and smaller government. All Republicans, they include representatives Greg Lavelle, Deborah Hudson and Gerald Hocker, Senator Joe Booth, and former senator Charlie Copeland, who has stayed active in state politics since losing the race for lieutenant governor in 2008.

Bonini is hands-down the most conservative of the group, often casting the only “no” vote on measures before the Senate, thus his nickname: No-nini.

“I believe in very limited government,” he says, “and my basic philosophy is that people will spend their money better than I ever will, no matter how well intentioned I am, and I and all my colleagues are well intentioned.

“But I am not one of these get-rid-of-government guys. From the human services perspective, the government clearly has a role. But I think, especially in Delaware, government has just grown way too large and way too expensive.”

The transplanted Californian was called “the longest shot in the state of Delaware” when he became the Senate’s youngest member in 1994 at the age of 29. He represents the 16th District, which encompasses southern Kent County and a small section of northern Sussex County.

From the start, he espoused his conservative credo, cautioning colleagues against runaway spending and a growing state bureaucracy. In June 2000 he predicted that “Delaware’s spending habits are a train wreck waiting to happen.” Sure enough, Governor Jack Markell faced a projected $800 million shortfall when he prepared his first budget last year. 

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Bonini held that the shortfall could be met by slashing state government, especially the payroll, without new taxes. Pointing out that the state’s 32,000 employees represent 46 percent of governmental expenses, he says, “The number has increased 15 percent in just the last eight years. We’ve got to find a way to shrink that number, and we’ve got to do it in a humane way. I don’t think we should lay people off. For one thing, it doesn’t save that much money because we’re self-insured, so we have to pay unemployment insurance.”

His solution: add two years to state workers’ pension time. He believed it would be a powerful incentive for them to take early retirement. While he says his colleagues “were intrigued by the idea,” they didn’t act on it.

“I think they will, though,” he says. “There is an institutional memory from the last time we did an early retirement incentive, in 1991 or ’92. It ended up being a disaster because within a year or two they basically filled all the positions that they [eliminated]. So they actually didn’t save any money. The key is it won’t work if you don’t have the discipline to not fill the vacancies.”

Bonini had other cost-cutting ideas too, which he put into a comprehensive and even entertaining Power Point presentation that he took to voters in all three counties.

First, though, the presentation focused on the burgeoning state budget, which has doubled in the last 12 years. Bonini pointed out such expenses as the $2.2 million lease on a helicopter that didn’t fly for 17 months, two golf courses and two marinas purchased for a combined $33 million, and 7,259 cell phones for state workers that cost almost $4 million.

Aside from the early retirement incentive, his other solutions to the budget dilemma are a two-year suspension of prevailing wages (which he claims make government projects 25 percent to 35 percent more expensive than they should be), consolidating school districts and their services, and a constitutional amendment that limits increases in state spending to inflation plus population growth.

His fellow Turks had already voiced support for most of these measures, especially the prevailing wage recommendation, but they credit Bonini for bringing statewide attention to them. Says Joe Booth, “The Bonini Plan drove the [budget] debate and changed it a little bit and impacted our decisions. Colin did the homework that [the rest of us] only surmised.”

“He’s been a consistent and long-term advocate for these ideas,” says Lavelle. “My sense is that he was often dismissed by his colleagues and some folks in Dover because we were drowning in money, and he’s sitting there saying stop spending. Things have certainly turned around, and he’s been out in front of this, way out in front, compared to a lot of folks.”

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Hocker is another who has railed against the state’s profligate ways throughout his eight years in the House. “You can’t continue to increase spending, doubling it over a 12-year period, and expect it not to come back and bite you,” says the Ocean View Republican. “Under [Governor Ruth Ann] Minner, we increased state workers an average of 530 per year for the eight years she was in office.”

Hocker believes that besides cutting expenses, the state must attract small businesses and help those already here to grow. “We’ve been rated 49th out of 50 states in entrepreneurship [in a study by the Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation], and that’s disgraceful,” he says. He applauds Markell’s choice of Alan Levin as director of economic development, but, Hocker says, “With the state’s anti-business atmosphere, that put him on crutches, and with the last tax package we passed [2009], we put him in a wheelchair. We have to change that and allow Alan to do his job.”

Not everyone is a Bonini fan. Though he likes him personally, Democratic Representative John Kowalko says, “Colin has good intentions, but I think his programs, his plans are so limited that there’s no wiggle room, and I don’t think that’s economically feasible.” He also faults Bonini for focusing too much on cutting government while failing to look for increased revenue sources, such as corporate taxes.

Bonini’s response, repeated every time he presented his Power Point: “Delaware doesn’t have a revenue problem. It has a spending problem.”

“Lots of states, like California and South Carolina, really don’t have the money,” he says. “We have the money. Even in a terrible economy, we still brought in $3 billion. This year’s general fund revenue includes about 30 percent personal income and just under 40 percent business taxes and corporate fees. Another 10 percent came from the lottery. We didn’t have the revenue-side problem that most states have, yet we still managed to get ourselves into a big problem, and that’s tremendously frustrating.”

Alan Muller, head of Green Delaware, also is a critic of Bonini, who frankly admits he is no environmentalist. “He genuinely thinks government is evil and we should have as little of it as possible,” says Muller. “I’ve gotten increasingly disappointed in him over the last several years. I don’t think his views are sound. He’s very ideological.”

Again, though, Muller finds the senator likeable. “Colin’s a pleasant guy. He’s courteous, treats people with respect, and he’s sincere in his views.”

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As Markell ended his first year in office, the Turks seemed willing to give the rookie governor a mulligan, though they were unhappy with the 2009 budget and the new taxes. Says Lavelle, “We often ask questions [of the Markell administration], and to be perfectly honest, I don’t think we get frank answers. But Jack had the perfectly legitimate—‘excuse’ isn’t the word I’m looking for—statement: ‘I just got here.’” The Sharpley representative indicates he will give Markell a few more months to get the feel of his office.

Bonini takes a similar stance. “Jack and I get along well,” he says. “He has said to me—paraphrasing here—‘Look, Colin, I agree with you a lot. Our government has grown too much in certain areas, but basically I just started and so next year we’re really gonna work on that.’ And I believe him. Of course, I’m more blunt. I say, ‘Cut the government,’ and he says, ‘We have to deliver services more efficiently.’ But basically I’m going to give Jack a year. On June 30, 2010 (the deadline for adopting the next budget), let’s see where he is.” 

That budget may be the last one Bonini will vote on for a while. He plans to run for state treasurer this year, when the term of current officeholder Velda Jones-Potter expires. Appointed by Markell in January 2009 to finish the term he left unfinished when he became governor, Jones-Potter is expected to run for the office, along with Chip Flowers, another Democrat. But the 6-foot-5, 300-pound Bonini, with his quick wit and constant smile, is a jolly giant with a natural flair for campaigning, so he should have a good shot at winning. And if he loses, he will keep his Senate seat until the end of his current term in 2012.

The Turks will certainly support his candidacy. Says Hudson, “He loves the issue of taxes and spending, so I think he would be a really good representative to have in a statewide office. He would be an excellent advocate and friend of the taxpayer.”

“I’m intrigued not by what the treasurer’s office is now but what it should become, which would be a watchdog agency, someone who would watch where tax dollars are going,” Bonini says. “Right now, nobody knows who the treasurer is.”

Then, chuckling, he adds, “That will change, by the way, if I get elected, for good or bad.”

WILMINGTON---      State Senator Colin Bonini showed a wide fundraising advantage over two Democratic opponents in the 2010 race for Delaware State Treasurer. The candidates year-end contribution reports were filed yesterday.

Bonini announced his campaign had raised over $129,000 from individual contributors since September and that he ended the year with almost $100,000 cash-on-hand. By contrast, incumbent State Treasurer Velda Jones-Potter raised just $13,000, while Jones-Potter’s opponent in the Democratic primary, Chip Flowers, raised just $31,000. Jones-Potter and Flowers both made significant personal contributions to their campaigns to remain competitive in the fundraising reports.

“I believe that the number of individual contributors to my campaign, which far outpaces my opponents’, shows a depth and breadth to my effort,” Senator Bonini said. “My opponents have both lent themselves significant sums of money, but you can’t run state government on a credit card and you can’t run a campaign that way either.”

“I’m grateful for the support I’ve received from Delawareans up and down the state who agree with me that Delaware’s spending problem needs to be solved,” Bonini said. “It’s time to bring some common-sense back into our state’s fiscal management. As Delaware’s next State Treasurer, that’s exactly what I intend to do.”